Risk Crisis Disaster Management
Managing the problems related to global warming is quite different than responding to a damaging earthquake albeit both strategies require careful planning and coordination. This paper points to the contrasts between the two ways of management and response, and offers suggestions from the literature on pre-planning for both eventualities.
Managing Strategies for Serious Earthquakes
To say that a major earthquake that hits in an urban area is an acute crisis understates the problem, especially when an enormous amount of damage has been done. In Japan, one year after the calamity of a 9.0 earthquake and a devastating tsunami, some 300,000 people remain homeless and are living in temporary shelters. No amount of earthquake planning could have prepared Japanese officials for this kind of disaster. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies reports that some 50,000 prefabricated homes have been built by the Japanese government, but “reconstruction of permanent houses has barely begun.”
In addition to people living in temporary shelters, many people are still living in the second stories of their homes (which were partially damaged from the tsunami and quake) and now, a year after the disaster, many communities are struggling to build homes on land that is well above sea level since people are naturally afraid that another tsunami will come. In some communities there is “fierce opposition to government proposals to merge some communities,” the Red Cross explains in an article (www.ifrc.org). There are small fishing villages in a peninsula that is east of Ishinomaki, and this is where the tsunami first hit, about half an hour after the 9.0 earthquake.
These hamlets are “now in ruins, but the local fishermen whose livelihoods depend on the area, are adamant that they should be rebuilt as they were” (www.ifrc.org). However, the money it will take to rebuild those communities exactly the way there were is not going to be available, so there will need to be compromises all the way around. Meanwhile, the memories of the tsunami still haunt many people so there is the psychological aspect to the tragedy, and in addition, the Red Cross mentions that during the one-year anniversary in March, 2012, there was a “constant stream of programs on Japanese TV looking back at the tsunami” that brings back “painful memories and increasing stress levels amongst survivors” (www.ifrc.org). Clearly, this is a disaster of such enormous magnitude that no amount of strategic planning could have prepared citizens or government officials.
An article in Issues in Science and Technology (Beatley, et al., 1993) was of course written many years prior to the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, but the authors offer information that is useful to planners. First of all, when relating to the United States and earthquake threats, the authors point out that “all of parts of 39 states — populated by more than 70 million people — have been classified as having major or moderate seismic risk” (Beatley, 82). And the article reports that it doesn’t necessarily take a temblor that is high on the Richter scale to cause serious damage. In 1983, a 6.7 magnitude quake “destroyed virtually the entire downtown of Coalinga, California” (Beatley, 83).
The key to why those buildings were damaged in Coalinga is the fact that they were “older unreinforced masonry (URM) structures”; meanwhile, subsequent to that event that leveled Coalinga, state seismic structure regulations (tougher building codes) have been enforced in many places throughout California, Beatley explains (84). In effect, stronger building codes are clearly the way for California lawmakers and planners to respond to the threat of future earthquakes. Once unreinforced masonry buildings have been damaged and people killed, new building codes are enforced. In Palo Alto, California, a “seismic Hazard Information Ordinance” was adopted based on “incentives,” Beatley writes (86). Owners of seismically “vulnerable structures” are required in Palo Alto to “perform structural analyses and to indicate by a deadline what improvements, if any, they plan to undertake.” Building owners are not required to retrofit those buildings. In return for retrofitting their buildings, owners are then offered “an increase in a structure’s allowable square footage,” along with other bonuses and benefits (Beatley, 86).
When there is a massive earthquake and communities are hit hard, there is no time to be lost making specific strategic plans about what to do. The plans must already have been in place so that when the tragedy strikes, the preparedness kicks into gear. In China the Wenchuan earthquake (2008) — an 8.0 on the Richter scale — caused nearly 70,000 deaths, 374,176 injuries and in addition 18,377 people were missing (Yang, et al., 2010, 217). An article in the International Nursing Review reflects the incredible task that Chinese nurses faced as they arrived at the scenes of devastation. The article points out that on May 12, 2008, the earthquake struck, and ten provinces were affected, 6.5 million houses destroyed, and 15 million people were “evacuated from their homes” (Yang, 218).
“Medical rescue teams were mainly made up of doctors and nurses” but support personnel were sent into the areas hardest hit to prevent epidemics (diseases),” Yang writes. And even though the thousands of nurses sent into the disaster areas “were highly regarded as experts in trauma, wound care and infection control,” Yang writes, “they still considered their practice in the field of disaster to be beyond the scope of their normal nursing practice” (218). Hence, the field work in this earthquake calamity was “an enormous challenge to their earlier perception” of just what it would be like if a huge disaster occurred and they were called into provide medical emergency care (Yang, 218).
The main challenge for the nurses was “an unfamiliar working environment, with scarce supplies” (due to transport problems created by the quake, it was hard to get supplies into the most seriously affected areas); also, many of the rescue workers had fever and diarrhea, and nurses had to deal with that as well as those immediately hurt by the quake, Yang explains (220). Moreover, nurses had to train the rescue workers to avoid sources of serious infection, “such as corpses,” and the nurses had to train workers how to avoid “consuming contaminated food and water.” So, within the article about how the nurses in China responded to the Wenchuan earthquake, strategic planning can emerge for those in areas where future earthquakes are expected. In a country like China — prone to natural and man-made disasters — “every nurse should have basic knowledge of and skills in disaster relief”; hence, nursing courses should be subjected to “systematic educational” programs that prepare them for “perioperative care, emergency care, community care and public health” (Yang, 222).
In another article reflecting on the Wenchuan earthquake — in the Journal of Public Health Policy — the authors interviewed government officials in the areas hardest hit by the earthquake; those officials reported the critical roles played by not just nurses, doctors and rescue workers, but by “the whole of society” (You, et al., 2009, 384). The critical roles played in this disaster included: a) organizing evacuation of the people; b) bringing health workers to the rescue to treat injured people; c) “comforting the general public”; d) organizing and pooling living materials (food, clothing, blankets); e) “dispatching personnel to investigate the affected areas”; f) bringing in workers to repair roads, to supply water, electricity, and gas; and g) “endeavoring to obtain external assistance” (You, 384).
Plans for emergency medical assistance had been set in place prior to the disaster, but because hospitals in the region were in many cases destroyed, the civil affairs bureau’s responses were to transfer badly injured citizens to hospitals outside the area. This is an example of the fact that even the best-laid plans cannot always be counted on to work when a disaster of this magnitude strikes. Pre-planning helped provide survivors with food and money; the “Emergent Rescue and Treatment Period” plan provided “300 yuan (27 euros) and 15 kg of rice” to each person each month in the affected areas (You, 387). Also, for those planning to rebuild their houses, the government provided a subsidy of 20,000 yuan (1,800 euros) per household. These kinds of plans can be created well before an earthquake disaster, but no matter how well thought-out the planning seems to be ahead of an event like the Wenchuan disaster, in an emergency some plans are just not relevant, depending on the nature and impact of the event.
“People should be encouraged to be self-reliant in emergency situations,” You explains on page 392, but also, “multi-sectoral cooperation and coordination is critical.”
The devastating tsunami of December 26, 2004 that hit Thailand and other nations in that region of the world — and killed tens of thousands — was followed on March 28, 2005 by an 8.7 earthquake in the island nation of Nias, about 130 km west of Sumatra (near the equator). An article in the journal Emergency Medicine Australasia (Jackson, et al., 2006, 199) explains how emergency medical aid was delivered to outlying villages in the islands of Nias. The help that came from Australia included engineers and the medical team.
Although there had not been a great amount of emergency planning for such a disaster — some 30% of all structures were “damaged or destroyed” and there was no electricity, plus the water was “often contaminated or destroyed” — local organizations like “Surfaid” got involved and provided important strategic support. Surfaid (part of the extensive surfing community) had many contacts with local people because the organization had been “regularly performing primary care clinics in the Nias area” (Jackson, 200). In fact Surfaid had five surf charter boats that were used by emergency personnel to supply “essential aid such as food, oil, and shelter” for those seriously affected by the earthquake.
The fact that Surfaid was so closely linked to the population — and that Surfaid immediately became a positive source of support — is a good reminder for future planning for earthquake relief and disaster relief organizations, and for governments. The Red Cross is not always going to be available in emergencies; and in some remote areas those injured and left without water or food struggle to survive while waiting for assistance. Hence, governments should be pre-planning for disasters by training non-government organizations (NGOs) like Surfaid to use their resources in response to emergency needs.
On the subject of earthquakes and island nations, an article in the journal Disasters, explains how a highly sophisticated, “multidisciplinary and multidimensional methodological approach to disaster analysis and safety policymaking” can be effective in terms of advanced planning (Delladetsima, et al., 2006, p. 469). The specific islands that were involved in this scholarly paper are the three islands of the Aegean Archipelagos (Chios, Kos, and Nissyros); and the authors offer two major sets of parameters vis-a-vis earthquake disaster planning in island environments: a) the geographical uniqueness of the island, its “socio-economic characteristics as shaped by the conditions of remoteness, isolation and self-sufficiency”; and b) the “exceedingly unpredictable and all-encompassing hazard in the Aegean Sea” which is linked to additional hazards like “landslides, submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis” (Delladetsima, 470).
The planning in this article relates to addressing an island’s vulnerability and “coping capacity factors”; the two key aspects of planning for any island nation that is vulnerable to earthquakes are: one: a “closed system analysis” (what are the resources if emergency help is to be provided from within the island’s resources?); and two, an “open system” (this relates to the “entry and exit” points for vulnerable components to be reached by outside sources) (Delladetsima, 478).
Managing Strategies for Global Climate Change
“Although climate change is a global problem, it’s one that presents many different faces, ranging all the way from regulatory risk to competitive opportunity [governments need to know] how to identify ways to mitigate risk and understand how to compete successfully in a carbon-constrained world” (Stewart, 2007, p. 14).
An article in the Australian (“Policy in a Smokescreen — Climate Change — Special Report — Business & Environment Part 1”) opens with a fact that is very pertinent to any nation attempting to mitigate the issue of climate change. Governments wrestling with strategies to address global warming “are realizing the difficulty of trying to fix a truly global and inter-generational problem at the level of a sovereign government” (Warren, 2007, p. 1). The frustration that planners have in dealing with global warming is that there are 192 “different countries on earth,” and each is ultimately responsible for taking stock of its own greenhouse gas emissions, Warren explains (p. 1).
And for each country, its own economic issues are directly tied into its efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases; while about 60% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions come from developed countries today, there will eventually be a shift as developing countries grow and increase the greenhouse gases they emit, Warren points out. As developing countries become competent to produce their own energy (through fossil fuels like coal and oil), are the developed countries going to be able to tell those third world nations they can’t spew greenhouse gases into the atmosphere? The reality for those countries is that generating electricity by any means is an advancement and helps their citizens live more comfortably, notwithstanding greenhouse gas emissions. This is a problem that industrialized nations will have to contend with.
Meanwhile, for Australia, reducing emissions is likely more difficult than for other countries — because the Australian economy and Australian exports “are underwritten by an abundance of cheap fossil fuel energy.” What is the solution then for Australia? “Low emission technologies” need to be put in place (renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and geothermal), the authors assert; also better insulation and retrofitting buildings will reduce the carbon footprint in Australia (Warren, p. 3).
The United Nations has been heavily involved in helping to determine why the climate is warming and what is causing the problem. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been researching (with hundreds of scientists worldwide) and reporting on the effects of global climate change since 1988. By helping world leaders and citizens understand the reality of climate change — through their empirical research and expert analysis — the IPCC has played a major role in the strategies that countries and regions will need to adopt in order to mitigate, as best as possible, the ongoing threats to the environment, to communities, to citizens and wildlife.
For example, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Price in 2007 for its contribution to understanding the facts and the implications of climate change. The IPCC produces reports periodically to explain the latest findings on global warming, which does not always present solutions but prepares those leaders and heads of state for what may be expected from the ongoing rise in world temperatures. In its most recent report, “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation,” the IPCC points out that due to climate change, weather and climate-related disasters “have increased” and that has caused a loss of life and economic losses into the many billions of dollars.
The report addresses questions like: “How do social and environmental factors interact with weather and climate events to create disasters?”; and “What can be done to make societies more resilient to extremes”? (IPCC, 2012). In the report’s section titled “Renewable energy technologies and markets” the IPCC recommends that in order to reduce the rise in global temperatures by limiting the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere, nations launch the following renewable sources: a) “bioenergy” (feedstocks like forest, agricultural and livestock residues can be used to “produce electricity or heat, or to create gaseous, liquid, or solid fuels” (; b) direct solar energy (using photovoltaics to produce heat and electricity) and passive solar energy (designing buildings that are south facing and capture the sun’s warmth); c) geothermal energy (there are “hydrothermal” reservoirs that can access the heat from the earth’s interior); d) hydropower (this energy source taps into the movement of water from higher to lower elevations, generating electricity; however, building dams on rivers and streams to produce hydro power disturbs the habitat for aquatic species in some cases); e) ocean energy (the chemical, thermal and kinetic energy of seawater “can be transformed to provide electricity, thermal energy, or potable water”; and f) wind energy (large wind turbines are being deployed “on a large scale” around the world to produce electricity, reducing the need for the burning of fossil fuels, which contribute greatly to greenhouse gas emissions) (IPCC).
There are problems with renewable energy (RE) sources, the IPCC reports, not the least of all is the high cost of many RE sources. Asking developing nations to invest huge amounts of money to avoid the problem of fossil fuel and greenhouse gases is not reasonable. However, the IPCC reports that many RE technologies — “in various settings” — are “economically competitive” and are readily available. Indeed, the cost of “most RE technologies has declined and additional expected technical advances would result in further cost reductions” (IPCC).
The IPCC expects that with additional cost reductions that are predicted, important new areas of technological advancement that can mitigate climate change; these areas include: a) new feedstock production and supply systems; b) biofuels “produced via new processes called next-generation or advanced biofuels”); c) advanced photovoltaic technologies and manufacturing processes; d) “enhanced geothermal systems”; e) enhanced “geothermal systems”; f) “multiple emerging ocean technologies”; and g) offshore wind energy.
Threats to America’s Ability to Manage Global Climate Change
All the above-mentioned technologies are designed to be deployed in order to manage the “slow burn crisis” of global warming, which is not affecting the planet with the urgency that an earthquake or tsunami can, but is most certainly happening notwithstanding the counter arguments by those who feel that global warming is some kind of liberal conspiracy. For example, one of the leading candidates in the Republican Party (Rick Santorum) was quoted recently saying global warming is “a hoax” that is being perpetrated by liberals and others. Santorum said that “man-made global warming” and proposed remedies are “bogus” (Factcheck.org).
Santorum’s refutation of climate change flies in the fact of a paper published in 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences that found “97 to 98% of climate researchers ‘most actively publishing in the field’ agreed that climate change was occurring” (FactCheck.org). Santorum showed his ignorance of science when he said: “The dangers of carbon dioxide? Tell that to a plant, how dangerous carbon dioxide is” (FactCheck.org). The IPCC, the National Academy of Sciences, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration all concur that the level of greenhouse gases has increased, the earth is getting hotter, seal levels are rising, and human activity is “very likely” the cause of “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century” (FactCheck.org quoting the IPCC).
As to Santorum’s remark, “tell that to a plant” — exposure to high levels of carbon dioxide can cause “headaches, dizziness, restlessness, a tingling or pins or needles feeling, difficulty breathing, sweating, tiredness, increased heart rate, elevated blood pressure, coma, asphyxia to convulsions” (Wisconsin Department of Health, referenced by FactCheck.org). As for the other leading Republican candidate for the nomination to run for the presidency, Mitt Romney, he has “proclaimed doubts about global warming science” and has “trashed President Barack Obama’s greenhouse gas emissions policies” (Samuelsohn, 2012).
If either of these candidates reaches the White House, it could set the United States back in terms of mitigating solutions to climate change. Certainly there will be a vigorous dialogue between the Republican candidate (whoever that turns out to be) and the current president Obama. The voters will have a clear choice when it comes to climate science and global climate change, and it will be interesting to see who the voters choose vis-a-vis that pivotal issue.
Even though strategies that apply to managing crises created by massive earthquakes are not easy to formulate — due to the suddenness, the unpredictability and the unknown strength of future temblors — because of the recent large earthquakes that have occurred in Japan and China, governments and NGOs have learned much about emergency responses to those catastrophic events. As for strategies for managing global warming, they are clear and well defined. The developed world has a moral and social responsibility to transition from fossil fuels — that emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere — into renewable energy sources as quickly as they can. Cars need to get better gas mileage, solar and wind energy sources must be dramatically expanded, and citizens need to be instructed as to how to conserve energy as well.
Beatley, Timothy, and Berke, Philip R. 1993. Time to Shake UP Earthquake Planning. Issues in Science and Technology, vol. 9, 82-90.
Delladestsima, Pavlos Marinos, Dandoulaki, Miranda, and Soulakellis, Nikos. 2006. An Aegean island earthquake protection strategy: an integrated analysis and policy methodology. Disasters, vol. 30, 469-502.
FactCheck. 2012. Rick Santorum’s Global Warming Views Not Shared By Many Scientists. Huffington Post. Retrieved March 24, 2012, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2012. IPCC releases full special report on “Managing the Risks of Extreme Weather Events.” Retrieved March 25, 2012, from http://www.ipcc.ch.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary. Retrieved March 24, 2012, from http://www.ipcc.ch.
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. 2011. Recover, rebuild, return. The Challenge facing many communities one year on. Retrieved March 25, 2012, from http://www.ifrc.org.
Jackson, Angela, and Little, Mark. 2006. On the ground in Nias in response to an earthquake — an emergency team’s experience. Emergency Medicine Australasia, vol. 18, 199-201.
Samuelsohn, Darren. 2012. Green donors Bet on Romney Flip-Flop. Politico. Retrieved March 25, 2012, from http://dyn.politico.com.
Stewart, Thomas A. 2007. Making a Difference. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved March 24, 2012, from http://www.hbr.org.
Warren, Matthew. 2007. Policy in a Smokescreen — Climate Change — Special Report — Business & Environment Part 1. Australian. Retrieved March, 2012, from Ebscohost.com.
Yang, Y.N. Xiao, L.D., Cheng, H.Y., Zhu, J.C., and Arbon, P. 2010. Chinese nurses’ experience in the Wenchuan earthquake relief. International Nursing Review, vol. 57, 217-223.
You, Chuanmei, Chen, Xunchui, and Yao, Lan. 2009. How China responded to the May 2008 earthquake during the emergency and rescue period. Journal of Public Health Policy, vol. 40, 379-394.
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